The risk of global catastrophes is real, and growing. An asteroid collision that could kill a quarter of humanity in twenty-four hours and the rest soon after; irreversible global warming that could flip, precipitating "snowball earth;" a particle accelerator disaster that could reduce the earth to a hyperdense sphere only 100 meters across--all these extinction events, and others, are possible, and they warrant serious thought about assessment and prevention.
In Catastrophe, Richard A. Posner addresses the threat of global disaster from a fresh, interdisciplinary perspective. Incorporating insights from economists, physical scientists, environmental scientists, psychologists, and other experts, Posner explains how we can minimize risks and differentiate low probability risks from more threatening high probability ones. He raises difficult questions about the role of politicians and policymakers in addressing catastrophic risk. Must we yield a degree of national sovereignty in order to deal effectively with global warming? Is limiting our civil liberties a necessary and proper response to the threat of bioterrorist attacks? Is investing in detection and interception systems for asteroids money well spent? How far can we press cost-benefit analysis in the design of responses to world-threatening events? These are but a few of the issues explored in this fascinating, disturbing, and necessary book.
In this revised and updated edition, Posner incorporates many new scholarly insights about catastrophe and risk that have emerged in the wake of the 2004 Indonesian Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, and the 2008 financial crisis, recent catastrophes which he discusses in detail.
"We would be well advised to...take the message of this book seriously."
--Peter Singer, The New York Times Book Review
"Catastrophe is worth the price of the book simply for Posner's lively and readable summary of the apocalyptic dystopias that serious scientists judge to be possible."
--Graham Allison, The Washington Post Book World
"Posner's perspective, very different from those held by most scientists, is a welcome addition to considerations of catastrophic risks."
--Science
In Catastrophe, Richard A. Posner addresses the threat of global disaster from a fresh, interdisciplinary perspective. Incorporating insights from economists, physical scientists, environmental scientists, psychologists, and other experts, Posner explains how we can minimize risks and differentiate low probability risks from more threatening high probability ones. He raises difficult questions about the role of politicians and policymakers in addressing catastrophic risk. Must we yield a degree of national sovereignty in order to deal effectively with global warming? Is limiting our civil liberties a necessary and proper response to the threat of bioterrorist attacks? Is investing in detection and interception systems for asteroids money well spent? How far can we press cost-benefit analysis in the design of responses to world-threatening events? These are but a few of the issues explored in this fascinating, disturbing, and necessary book.
In this revised and updated edition, Posner incorporates many new scholarly insights about catastrophe and risk that have emerged in the wake of the 2004 Indonesian Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, and the 2008 financial crisis, recent catastrophes which he discusses in detail.
"We would be well advised to...take the message of this book seriously."
--Peter Singer, The New York Times Book Review
"Catastrophe is worth the price of the book simply for Posner's lively and readable summary of the apocalyptic dystopias that serious scientists judge to be possible."
--Graham Allison, The Washington Post Book World
"Posner's perspective, very different from those held by most scientists, is a welcome addition to considerations of catastrophic risks."
--Science
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