Price and Financial Stability

Price and Financial Stability

by David Harrison
Epub (Kobo), Epub (Adobe)
Publication Date: 24/05/2018

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Why are financial prices so much more crisis-prone and unstable than real economy prices? Because they are doing different things. Unlike real economy prices, rooted in the real goods and services produced and exchanged, financial prices attempt to value future income flows from financial and capital assets. These valuations fluctuate erratically because expectations of the future fluctuate – and large liquid financial markets can amplify, rather than correct, these effects. The book builds on the insights of economists Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes, that uncertainty of the future is essential to understand the processes of economic production and capital investment, and adds to this Karl Popper's general explanation of how expectations of an uncertain future are formed and tested through a trial and error process. Rather than relying on fluctuating financial prices to provide a guide to an uncertain future, it suggests a better approach would be to adopt the methods common to other branches of science, and create testable (falsifiable) theories allowing reasonable predictions to be made. In finance, the elements of one such theory could be based on the concept of forecasting yield from capital assets, which is a measurable phenomenon tending towards aggregate and long-term stability, and where there is a plentiful supply of historic data. By methods like this, financial economics could become a branch of science like any other. To buttress this approach, the widely accepted public policy objective of promoting real economy price stability could be widened to include financial price stability.

ISBN:
9781351579216
9781351579216
Category:
Economics & Business
Format:
Epub (Kobo), Epub (Adobe)
Publication Date:
24-05-2018
Language:
English
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
David Harrison

David Harrison was born in the Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire, England but spent half his life in London and SE England before moving to Sydney, Australia in 1981 and becoming an Australian citizen.

After retiring from a career in scientific research which entailed writing and publishing many scientific papers and reports, David decided he’d like to try his hand at creative writing and took a course with the poet Kate Llewellyn.

With Kate’s encouragement he started writing poetry. He was a member of the Central Coast Poets from 2004 until moving to Canberra recently and had poems published in their anthologies, as well as in Five Bells and the Quadrant Magazine.

His poem ‘Poor Man Hiro’ was awarded second prize in the Henry Kendal Poetry Award 2012 and his poem ‘In Praise of Grey’ was awarded first prize in the Free Verse Category competition of the University of the third age, Sunshine Coast. His first book of poems, ‘Songs of the Exile’ (Ginninderra Press) was published in 2017.

David is married to June from whom Paul inherits his artistic talent. Their daughter Sita has inherited David’s scientific interests.

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